Where will our next pastor come from?

Beloved Pastor X retires.  Pastor X did her best to ensure a good foundation in her last years.  When she walked out the door after her last Sunday, the church's finances and building were in good shape.  No debt!!  Admittedly, attendance was down compared to pre-COVID, but it was starting to come back.  There seemed a good nucleus of young families and there was a hope that with the new developments on the edge of town, growth could occur.  Pastor X had given the denominational representative a year's notice and the leadership in the church a full four months to prepare.

Yet, the congregation is now on their third (part-time!) interim.  The one pastoral candidate whose name they were given clearly wasn't a good fit...

Sound familiar?  I've seen it again and again with vacancies in my area -- and not just in my denomination.

It isn't just your church that has trouble finding a pastor

For the last two generations (or more), mainline churches that were healthy could have confidence that after their pastor left, their denomination would provide them with candidates for ministry who were:

• Trained theologically, typically with a Master of Divinity degree
• Experienced with basics of leading worship and preaching
• Vetted for emotional and psychological health by the denomination

I acknowledge that rural, especially remote, urban and poor areas have often struggled to attract and maintain clergy.  But if the congregation (and zip code) were healthy, typically congregations would be able to find not just any clergy person, but one who fit their demographic and even political preferences.  

This is no longer the case.

There is simply not enough clergy to fill open calls

Simply put, most congregations have far more open calls than clergy.  This is true in mainline congregations; it is becoming true even in more conservative and evangelical denominations.  It is true in rural, urban and suburban contexts.  

The ELCA - my denomination - has been and will continue to retire 500-600 clergy a year for most of this decade.  We will graduate 75-100ish pastors per year.  In short, we will see a reduction in the number of pastors by 50% within 6-7 years.   Even if we close a quarter of our churches over that time, we still would see a massive number of churches without a pastor.

Politics amplifies the shortage

Denominations are often theologically mixed.  The allegiance to historical confessions has waned over time.  This means that congregations cannot be confident that a given pastor will hold the same views on the sacraments, liturgy, the particular traditions, etc., as they do or the last pastor held.  This has always been somewhat the case.  People were able to exist within big "tent" denominations; typically left of center clergy successfully ministered to typically right of center congregations.  The liturgies, social ministries and pastoral care kept people united.

What changed?  First, the denominational leadership within mainline churches has increasingly become aligned along a progressive social orientation.  Furthermore, congregations and clergy are less likely to "restrain" their political beliefs.  This means that while most congregations remain a political mixture of folks, clergy - especially new clergy - are often (stridently) progressive in an environment in which moral pressure is exerted on people to imbue their theology with politics.  This increases conflicts and burnout.  It also reduces the number of potential matches for clergy and congregations.  

Other demographic realities matter too

While politics is king in the US...lots of other factors influence the capacity of clergy to take calls.  Housing right now is expensive in most communities, demanding that most people have two incomes, especially if they are to afford child-care.  This brings up the reality of not simply having a good call, but availability of work for a spouse...who has his or her own career trajectory.

In addition, a number of women and definitely LGBTQ+ candidates feel (know!) that congregations will not accept them, even if the denomination has authorized them. 

In short, even if a denomination produced as many clergy candidates as it did 30 years ago, this would likely still produce challenges for congregations to find a match.

How are denominations responding to this?

Since we expect (mainline) denominations to supply pastors for churches, we can start here.  Why aren't denominations doing more to address this problem?  The simple (and not cynical) answer is that denominations simply lack the ability to address the issue.  

First, a pastor typically takes decades to make.  The erosion of children, youth and young adult ministries limits a quick turn around.

Second, most denominational offices spend most of their time on three things, none of which really help produce new clergy

• Dying congregations
• Misbehaving clergy
• Social issues

Third, most denominations are a cobbled together network of congregations, seminaries, social ministries and camps.  Even if a denominational leader wanted to move in X direction, getting all the pieces on board to move in sync is nearly impossible.  Can you imagine, for example, how many separate endowments exist in the Episcopal church?  My denomination, the ELCA, is such a crazy mix of interconnected pieces, they actually refer to it as an "eco-system."

In short, even when denominations want to change it, the leaders face systems that are dying, grieving and complex, confronted by too many short-term problems to address long-term opportunities.  Sometimes mid-level bodies (a diocese or synod) are more able to develop certain programs that attract, train and sustain clergy.  But generally, this has not been the focus of most mainline bodies.

How are congregations responding to this?

Churches are increasingly confronted then with an uncomfortable reality -- they simply cannot find a "major league pastor", i.e., someone in their denomination who is educated, certified and ordained...even when they can afford such a candidate!  (And again, this ignores the political reality that congregations face in terms of matching a candidate with their congregation's political temperament). 

When this happens...

• Congregations become open and hire pastors/deacons/elders/ministers of different theological traditions.
• If they are larger churches, they likely start hiring pastors from other congregations who are successful but feel stymied by the smaller church environment. 
• People begin to weaken their demand for theological education.  They accept

• Seminarians, who are given way more permission than previous generations to lead congregations during their education.
• People who will not go to Seminary, but are open to some modicum of training and will get special permission from the denomination to serve.  (In my denomination, this was invented for rural and ethnic minority congregations, but now has become approved for churches that can pay, but cannot find a clergy person).
• Fourth, they look within.  Every church has them -- people who have talent, but who have neither gone nor could go go to Seminary; or perhaps someone who is willing to go for some training, but would not be able to finish an masters degree.  The former or existing pastors in that congregation authorize or even ordain this person for ministry at that congregation.
• Fifth, they are invited into coops or multi-point parishes.  Why this could work but often doesn't is a whole other post!

All of these have happened for decades, if not centuries.  The difference is that they are becoming common, rather than a small minority.

How can I lead my congregation into this reality?

• Define core values around pastoral leadership

You might have to let go of your previous expectations that a pastor must have an MDiv, have board certification and ordination from a denomination.  Something is going to give.   For Lutherans, this is forcing a very hard conversation about our core theology, specifically certain articles of the Augsburg Confession.

Ask yourself - what do we want in a pastor?  Is a pastor the most important thing?  What is of fundamental importance for us to have moving forward?  Our building?  Our community?  A full-time pastor?  An X denomination accredited person?

• De-pastorify as much as you can

Ask yourselves now -- what have we asked clergy to do that others can do?  If you only get 1/4 time clergy or have to share clergy, what can they alone do that others cannot?

• Train-up pastors, deacons and elders

Ask yourselves -- whom can we ask to take some seminary classes to prepare for a semi-pastor or bi-vocational role?  Who might God have given gifts for congregational leadership?  For preaching?  For leading worship?

How are you called to pass on the fundamentals of the faith and the skills to lead? 

• Find partner churches 

Increasingly, churches will need to return to previous models of ministry in which there was one pastor for many churches.  But for various reasons, returning to this model is very difficult for churches.  Re-consider!

• Find partner churches, not for clergy, but clergy education

Lastly, there is a good chance that your next pastor will come from within your ranks.  However, this can create problems in terms of having clergy with too narrow of experience and not enough separation from their flock.  A better solution might be finding partner churches with whom you can raise up leaders so that people can "cross-train."  This is essentially what the whole denomination did, but given the present state within denominations, this becomes increasingly hard.

This article breaks my heart to write (and to read!)

I have a lot of grief writing this.  I loved my seminary education and graduating with a ton of young clergy.  It felt like a Hogwarts experience!  I loved growing up in a robust denomination that had lots of folks, ministries and programs.  I lament that it is dying. 

I am writing this because I had so many conversations about this over the past six months and wanted to organize my thoughts.  I also want to point people toward the painful reality that resuscitation is unlikely.  Scaling down an organization to a previous size is infinitely harder than scaling up, which is in itself, a big challenge.  If people are passionate about helping their congregation move forward, they will need to embrace a very different reality when it comes to clergy than the previous two to three generations lived with.

What about resurrection?

I do believe in resurrection.  I am not worried about the one, holy, catholic and apostolic church.   I see all sorts of evidence of Reformation (and Lutheran) truths continuing to change people's lives.  I see all sorts of ministries flourishing and bearing witness to Jesus.  I also see many congregations finding ways to die with generosity and faith.  I also know that God continues to create the congregations from the margins and the seemingly most unfertile soil.

God is always doing a new thing.  That said, I have avoided too much theological language here.  Because simply, I do not know fully what God is doing with the mainline churches.  Are the changes at work making these congregations less clerical in a good way...or speeding up the demise of low-church protestant churches?  Are these changes wiping out more progressive congregations or freeing up certain denominations to embrace fully a progressive agenda?  My gut is that rather than know what God is doing, we would simply be declaring our own preferences.  But yes, this is always fascinating to consider -- what is God putting to death and what is God bringing to life?  And what in me must die to move ahead in this new reality as I think about how to serve as a pastor, relate to other pastors and train up future leaders?